Precious Metals Market Under Pressure: Gold Oscillates Down, Macro and Geopolitical Factors Intertwine
Recently, the international precious metals market experienced significant volatility, especially gold prices oscillating downward under multiple pressures. Based on the latest market dynamics and expert views, this article deeply analyzes the macro drivers behind gold price pressure, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and possible future trends.
Gold Under Pressure: USD Strength and Rate Hike Expectations Double Hit
Since this month, COMEX gold futures have steadily declined from the key $4,500/oz level, under significant pressure. Last week, despite a moderation in US-Iran tensions, oil prices fell back to pre-conflict levels from March. However, market focus quickly shifted to expectations of Fed rate hikes. With the dollar index strengthening, commodities generally weakened, and capital outflows further exacerbated gold's decline. Midweek, international gold accelerated its drop, breaking below the $4,000/oz mark, before recovering slightly above $4,000 as Fed officials issued "hawkish" signals.
Macro Drivers and Policy Game
GF Futures precious metals analyst Ye Qianning pointed out that from a macro perspective, the US economy is showing optimistic overall growth driven by fiscal stimuli such as tax refunds and AI capital spending. However, the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up energy prices, leading to rising inflation pressure, though this cost push downstream transmission chain is not yet apparent. She believes that considering new Fed Chair Warsh's gradual reforms reducing market expectation management, the market will rely more on inflation data and other FOMC members' statements to judge the monetary policy path. Currently, with energy prices retreating, inflation is expected to be under control, and some Fed officials lean toward keeping rates unchanged or hiking only once this year, which will gradually repair previously extreme market expectations.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Outlook
AVIC Futures gold analyst Cai Yiqing believes that gold will remain under pressure in the short term. Over the weekend, US-Iran tensions escalated again, with both sides accusing each other of violating the memorandum of understanding. The previously cooled geopolitical risks have heated up again, which will increase precious metals market volatility, with gold likely forming a range-bound pattern. She advises investors to closely watch Warsh's speech at the ECB forum this week and his subsequent progress in promoting central bank system and communication mechanism reforms. Meanwhile, the gradual correction of market expectations for Fed rate hikes will also be a key factor affecting gold.
Limited Rebound Room, Focus on Nonfarm Payrolls
For this week's market trend, Ye Qianning suggests focusing on US nonfarm payrolls and the impact of US-Iran tensions on dollar index and gold's strength-weakness shift. She believes that after overselling, gold has some rebound room, but due to a lack of new bullish drivers and the equity market capital absorption effect from the booming AI industry, investment and consumption demand for precious metals remain weak, limiting price recovery. She predicts international gold faces strong resistance around $4,200/oz. If the US economy remains strong, gold will again face pressure.
Conclusion: Short-Term Oscillation, Medium- to Long-Term Support Remains
In summary, the gold market faces multiple short-term pressures: USD strength, rate hike expectations, geopolitical volatility, and capital diversion to equity markets. These factors together keep gold under pressure, with short-term oscillation likely. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, continued central bank gold purchases will still provide support. Market participants need to closely monitor US economic data, Fed policy moves, and geopolitical developments to seize precious metals investment opportunities. In the coming weeks, with key data releases and policy signals, gold's trend direction will become clearer.
