ICBC: NIM Stabilization Could Drive Valuation Recovery - Changjiang Securities Maintains 'Buy' Rating
On June 11, Changjiang Securities research noted that ICBC's 2026Q1 revenue grew 8.3% YoY (2025 full year 2.0%), net profit attributable to parent grew 3.3% YoY (2025 full year 0.7%). Revenue growth significantly exceeded expectations, with profit notably accelerating.
2026Q1 NPL ratio stabilized QoQ at 1.31%, provision coverage ratio increased QoQ by 1ppt to 214%. 2026Q1 core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 13.3%, down 0.3ppt QoQ. Risk-weighted RWA/total assets ratio rose slightly, mainly due to faster corporate loan growth.
Currently, the G-SIBs tier has risen to Tier 3. Starting in 2027, the regulatory floor for core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio will rise from 9% to 9.5%. Assuming a fiscal injection of RMB 150 billion this year, it would increase by about 0.5ppt.
Currently, the expected dividend yield for 2026 A/H shares is 4.3%/5.3%. The estimated dilution from the fiscal injection is about 2%, with limited impact. NIM stabilization is expected to drive systematic valuation recovery. Long-term recommendation, maintain 'Buy' rating.
