Global Energy Transition Accelerates, Power Oil & Gas Market Faces Structural Change
On July 28, 2026, the global power oil & gas market presents a complex and volatile landscape. International oil prices oscillate in the $78–82 per barrel range, while natural gas prices edge lower due to seasonal demand and inventory factors. Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic wholesale gasoline and diesel prices adjust in line with international trends, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) remaining stable due to continued government subsidy policies. This article analyzes the core drivers of current power oil & gas market conditions from three perspectives: international macroeconomics, regional policies, and Thailand's local market.
International Oil Prices: Fragile Supply-Demand Balance, Geopolitical Risk Premium Persists
As of this week, Brent crude futures settled at $80.12 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $76.85, down about 3.5% from the same period last month. The main pressure stems from OPEC+ member countries' decision after the July meeting to gradually increase production starting in August, releasing an additional 400,000 barrels per day. However, reduced Russian crude oil exports due to refinery maintenance partially offset this output increase. The International Energy Agency (IEA) latest monthly report indicates global oil inventories are below the five-year average, but demand growth is slowing, particularly as Europe's manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, dragging down diesel consumption.
In natural gas, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures price fell to €28.5 per megawatt-hour, a low since November 2025. The U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price hovers around $3.2 per million British thermal units. The main reason is that European natural gas storage has reached 87% of capacity, up 12 percentage points year-on-year; Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices dropped to $11.5 per million British thermal units, impacted by weak Chinese industrial demand.
Southeast Asian Energy Policy Shift, Thailand Accelerates Emission Reduction Layout
At the regional level, ASEAN countries are actively adjusting their energy structures. Thailand's Ministry of Energy announced on July 25 that starting 2027, all newly registered taxis and tuk-tuks must be electric vehicles, with subsidies provided for converting natural gas vehicle (NGV) stations. This move aims to reduce the transport sector's dependence on imported natural gas while aligning with the national carbon neutrality goal. Data shows Thailand imported 38% of its natural gas consumption in 2025, primarily for power generation and industrial production.
Meanwhile, Thailand's domestic gasoline and diesel market shows divergence. Gasoline (95 octane) retail price remains at 45.72 baht per liter, while diesel is subsidized at 30.86 baht. Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga stated that the diesel subsidy program will be extended until the end of September to ease the burden on transport operators. However, subsidy costs have exceeded 20 billion baht, and the Ministry of Finance is considering a gradual phase-out mechanism.
Thai Oil & Gas Stock Movements, PTT Group Earnings Stable
Energy sector stocks on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) have been subdued recently. Thailand's national oil company PTT reported Q2 net profit down 2.1% year-on-year to 26 billion baht, mainly due to narrower refining margins. However, its natural gas separation business saw slight revenue growth driven by stable petrochemical feedstock demand. Subsidiary PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) benefited from the new gas field in Vietnam coming online, with Q2 output rising to 468,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above expectations.
Another major energy firm, Bangchak Corporation (BCP), announced its biorefinery in Rayong province has successfully produced its first batch of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with a capacity of 100 tons per day. The company plans to expand SAF capacity to 500 tons per day by 2027 to capture the emerging green fuel market in Southeast Asia.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Market Balanced, Prices Stable
Thailand's LPG prices for household and transport use remain unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with a 15-kg household cylinder retailing at about 345 baht. This is mainly due to the government subsidizing import price differentials through the Energy Stability Fund. On the supply side, Thailand's LPG demand is roughly 40% from petrochemicals, 20% from households, and the rest from transport. With ample global LPG supply, Saudi Aramco's July contract price (CP) fell $15 per ton to $560, helping reduce import costs.
However, industry insiders point out that with large-scale electrification of Bangkok taxis, LPG consumption as vehicle fuel has declined for five consecutive months, down about 6% year-on-year. The Energy Ministry is considering redirecting LPG vehicle subsidies toward electric vehicle charging infrastructure to accelerate the energy transition.
Outlook: Oil & Gas Prices Range-Bound, Focus on China Demand and OPEC+ Moves
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the power oil & gas market faces multiple uncertainties. The U.S. presidential election is approaching; divergent energy policies among candidates could affect shale oil drilling regulation. Whether China's economic stimulus measures can boost industrial oil demand remains a key variable. OPEC+ will meet in September; if oil prices stay below $80, major members may pause production increases.
For Thai investors, during the energy transition period, traditional oil & gas stocks still offer stable cash flow and high dividends, but the risk of subsidy policy withdrawal must be monitored. On the other hand, new energy and biofuel-related stocks such as PTT, BCP, and Global Power Synergy stand to benefit from long-term low-carbon trends. Investors are advised to watch the August resolution from Thailand's Energy Ministry meeting and Q3 Chinese crude import data.
Conclusion
In July 2026, the power oil & gas market stands at a critical juncture where traditional fossil fuels and new energy forces wax and wane. Short-term price fluctuations reflect supply-demand fine-tuning, while the mid-to-long term requires focusing on national climate policies and technological breakthroughs. As the second-largest economy in ASEAN, Thailand's energy transition path not only affects domestic industrial development but also provides an important observation window for regional low-carbon progress. Investors should remain flexible, seeking structural opportunities amid volatility.
