New Dynamics in the Power and Oil & Gas Market: In-depth Analysis of Thailand's Energy Stock Investment Strategies for the Second Half of 2026

New Dynamics in the Power and Oil & Gas Market: In-depth Analysis of Thailand's Energy Stock Investment Strategies for the Second Half of 2026

In the second half of 2026, the global energy market is undergoing unprecedented changes. With continuous fluctuations in international oil prices, adjustments in Thailand's domestic energy policies, and accelerated global energy transition, Thailand's power and oil & gas market is facing new dynamics. As the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia, changes in Thailand's energy demand and supply structure not only affect people's livelihoods but also have a profound impact on investor decisions. This article will analyze current market dynamics from multiple dimensions, providing investors with comprehensive market analysis and investment strategies.

International Oil Price Fluctuations: Global Supply and Demand Rebalancing

Since 2026, the international crude oil market has shown volatile trends. Brent crude prices have fluctuated between $85 and $92 per barrel, while WTI crude has oscillated between $82 and $88 per barrel. According to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude oil inventories have been at the five-year average level for three consecutive months, indicating that the market supply and demand is seeking a new balance point.

The main factors affecting international oil prices include:

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• OPEC+ production policy adjustments: Major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to maintain production-limiting agreements, but the production compliance rate of some member countries has decreased.
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• Growth in US shale oil production: US shale oil production has reached a historic high, potentially pressuring OPEC+.
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• Global economic growth expectations: The IMF has lowered its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 3.2%, affecting crude oil demand forecasts.
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• Geopolitical risks: Uncertainties such as tensions in the Middle East and security issues in the Red Sea shipping lanes.
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For Thailand, international oil price fluctuations directly affect its import costs and domestic energy prices. Data from Thailand's Ministry of Energy shows that Thailand's crude oil import dependency is as high as 85%. For every $10 increase in international oil prices, Thailand's annual energy expenditure will increase by approximately 200 billion Thai baht.

Thailand's Domestic Energy Price Adjustments and Policy Changes

Since 2026, the Thai government has continued to implement energy price subsidy policies but is facing fiscal pressure, leading to more frequent policy adjustments. According to the latest announcement from Thailand's Ministry of Energy, as of August 14, domestic gasoline prices in Thailand are 36.45 Thai baht per liter (92-octane), 36.15 Thai baht per liter (95-octane), and 35.85 Thai baht per liter (97-octane), while diesel prices are 34.75 Thai baht per liter.

Notably, the Thai government has announced that it will gradually adjust fuel subsidy policies starting from September, with diesel prices expected to increase by 0.50 Thai baht per liter while gasoline prices will remain relatively stable. This policy adjustment will directly affect the logistics industry and agricultural production costs in Thailand, thereby affecting the profitability and stock performance of related enterprises.

In the natural gas sector, Thailand's natural gas prices showed a trend of first declining and then rising in the first half of 2026. According to data from Thailand's Natural Gas Management Authority, industrial natural gas prices rose from $18.5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the beginning of the year to the current $21.3, an increase of about 15%. This is mainly due to the dual impact of rising international liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and increased domestic demand.

Analysis of Performance of Major Thai Energy Enterprises

As the leading enterprise in Thailand's energy industry, the PTT Group showed strong performance in the first half of 2026. According to the latest financial report, PTT Group's second-quarter revenue reached 325 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; net profit was 32 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. The stock price rose from 320 Thai baht per share at the beginning of the year to the current 378 Thai baht per share, an increase of about 18.1%.

The success of the PTT Group mainly stems from three factors:

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• Improved profitability of upstream exploration and production business, with crude oil prices maintained at relatively high levels.
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• Downstream refining and chemical business has improved profit margins through technological transformation and product structure optimization.
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• New energy business has accelerated its layout, with wind power and solar energy projects contributing continuously growing returns.
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Another important energy enterprise, PTT Chemical (PTTGC), also performed impressively. In the first half of 2026, PTT Chemical's revenue reached 182 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; net profit was 18 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The stock price rose from 210 Thai baht per share at the beginning of the year to the current 245 Thai baht per share, an increase of about 16.7%.

In addition, Bangchak Petroleum (BCP) also achieved stable growth in the first half of 2026. The company's second-quarter revenue was 45 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; net profit was 3.5 billion Thai baht, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The stock price rose from 62 Thai baht per share at the beginning of the year to the current 71 Thai baht per share, an increase of about 14.5%.

Performance of the SET Energy Index and Market Trends

Since 2026, the SET Energy Index of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has shown strong performance, rising from 1,250 points at the beginning of the year to the current 1,450 points, an increase of about 16%. This performance has outperformed the overall SET index (which rose from 1,680 points at the beginning of the year to the current 1,850 points, an increase of about 10.1%), indicating that the energy sector has become a market hotspot.

Analyzing the reasons for the strong performance of the SET Energy Index, the main factors include:

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• International oil prices have been maintained at relatively high levels, enhancing profit expectations for energy enterprises.
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• Thailand's energy transition policy promotion has led to market optimism about the growth potential of new energy businesses.
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• Enhanced global energy security awareness has renewed attention to the strategic value of energy.
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• Compared to other industries, the energy sector has relatively reasonable valuations and possesses allocation value.
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2026 Second Half Investment Strategies and Risk Management

Based on the above analysis, we provide the following investment strategy recommendations for investors:

1. Sector Allocation Recommendations

Within the SET energy sector, investors are advised to focus on the following three types of stocks:

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• Integrated energy giants: such as PTT, PTTGC, etc., with stable profitability and high dividend yields.
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• New energy transition enterprises: such as B.Grimm Power, Energy Absolute, etc., with first-mover advantages in wind power and solar energy fields.
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• Energy service and equipment suppliers: such as TTW, Top Oil, etc., benefiting from energy industry development and technological upgrades.
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2. Individual Stock Selection Strategies

For specific stock selection, the following characteristics are recommended:

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• High degree of business diversification to reduce risks from single energy price fluctuations.
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• Increasing proportion of new energy business, in line with long-term energy transition trends.
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• Healthy financial structure, stable cash flow, and reasonable debt ratios.
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• Valuation advantages compared to industry averages, with PEG ratios below 1.0.
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3. Risk Management Measures

The main risks faced by investing in the energy sector include:

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• Risk of significant international oil price fluctuations: It is recommended to set stop-loss points and consider using derivatives such as futures for risk hedging.
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• Policy change risks: Closely monitor adjustments in Thailand's energy policies, especially subsidy policy changes and environmental standard modifications.
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• Technology substitution risks: Rapid development of new energy technologies may cause traditional fossil fuel demand to peak ahead of schedule.
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• Geopolitical risks: Tensions in the Middle East may affect energy supply security.
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To address these risks, investors are advised to take the following measures:

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• Diversified investment: Do not concentrate all funds in a single energy enterprise or single energy type.
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• Regular evaluation: Re-evaluate the investment portfolio quarterly and adjust promptly according to market changes.
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• Long-term perspective: Energy transition is a long-term trend, and short-term fluctuations should be viewed with a long-term investment perspective.
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• Professional analysis: Pay attention to industry research and analysis reports from professional institutions and verify investment decisions through multiple sources.
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Future Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, Thailand's power and oil & gas market will face several major trends:

1. Energy Price Trend Forecast

International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $80-95 per barrel, with a midpoint of approximately $87. Thailand's domestic energy prices may adjust with international prices, but the government will continue to maintain a certain level of subsidies to control inflationary pressures.

2. Accelerated Energy Transition

The Thai government has announced that it will accelerate the promotion of energy transition, with a target of renewable energy accounting for 30% by 2030. This will bring huge development opportunities for new energy enterprises while posing challenges to traditional energy enterprises.

3. Deepening Regional Cooperation

Energy cooperation within the ASEAN region will further deepen, especially in terms of power interconnection and natural gas pipeline construction. Thailand will continue to play the role of a regional energy hub, providing more regional cooperation opportunities for energy enterprises.

4. Technological Innovation Driving Industry Upgrading

Digital and intelligent technologies will be increasingly applied in the energy sector, improving production efficiency and management levels. Enterprises with technological advantages will occupy favorable positions in future competition.

Conclusion: Seizing Investment Opportunities in the Energy Transition

Overall, in the second half of 2026, Thailand's power and oil & gas market will show complex changes under the influence of multiple factors such as international oil price fluctuations, domestic policy adjustments, and accelerated energy transition. Investors should maintain rationality, recognizing both the risks brought by short-term fluctuations and seizing long-term investment opportunities in the energy transition.

For long-term investors, the energy sector still has high allocation value. The key is to select high-quality enterprises that can respond to short-term price fluctuations while adapting to long-term energy transition trends. At the same time, appropriately allocate new energy-related assets to seize investment opportunities brought by energy structure transformation.

In terms of specific operations, investors are advised to adopt a "core-satellite" investment strategy, using integrated energy giants as core allocations and new energy transition enterprises or specialized energy service enterprises as satellite allocations, seizing investment opportunities in different sub-sectors while controlling risks.

Finally, investors should closely monitor changes in Thailand's energy policies, international oil price trends, and developments in energy technology, promptly adjusting investment strategies to find stable returns in the changing energy market.

The changes in the energy market are also opportunities. Only by deeply understanding market dynamics and grasping industry trends can one achieve steady returns on the investment path. May every investor find their own investment opportunities in the changes of Thailand's energy market.